"One nation, two states". Azerbaijan is the continuation of Turkey in the South Caucasus
Each action in the border exercised by the Azerbaijani side has it's reasons which are quite interesting and poorly disguised. Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan told about regularly border tension in the talk with Sputnik Armenian radio station. The analyst reminded, after the US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland's regional visit the situation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani border was calmed down for a while.Then Turkish minister of foreign affairs Mevlut Chavush Oglu has visited Azerbaijan. Immediately after his departure that country has violated the ceasefire regime again. It’s hard to say, whether Turkey made or convinced Azerbaijan, but it is clear that the visit promoted the change in the border.
“Starting that moment the situation began to escalate. In fact, after Chavushoglu's Azerbaijani visit the agreements, which had been reached with Victoria Nuland, were neutralized or equalled to zero. It’s hard to say, whether Turkey made or convinced Azerbaijan, but it is clear that the visit promoted the change in the border”, - remarked the political scientist adding that the aim of this is to cast a shade of the Genocide anniversary.
Azerbaijan has many reasons to escalate the situation in the border and gain some points of it. The analyst listed economic, political and regional issues. “However, I think that the main problem is the anniversary of the Armenian Genocide”, - he added.
The recent years Azerbaijan “has sold the peace” to the all external players who are pursued geopolitical or geoeconomic interests in the region. According to Melik Shahnazaryan, among the leading players are The USA, The EU and Russia.
“Azerbaijan is aware about the intentions of these three actors: they wanted to see predictable, controlled and safe South Caucasus. Azerbaijan sells the peace and the the situation escalates to the dangerous degree and receive points for the peace”, - he commented.
The analyst described Azerbaijan as the continuation of Turkey in the South Caucasus. To understand this, it is enough to pay the attention to the visits of high ranked Azerbaijani and Turkish officials and the following situation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. It is also important to pay attention to the announcements of Turkish leaders about Artsakh issue.
“Today these states show some internal differences, however, in reality, are doing the same. The formula is one: two state one nation”, - he emphasized.
Melik-Shanazaryan remains to the viewpoint, that Azerbaijan is not ready for full-scale war because “the results and the consequences are not countable”.
According to the political scientist, today the only way to restrain Azerbaijani ambitions is the military mechanism. Their diplomacy is far away from the actions of military departments.
"Diplomacy is poor, and the main factor restricting Azerbaijan is still the army," he said.