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Ceasefire with continuous use of arms-RIA News

 

The implementation of the ceasefire agreement will be quite difficult as not only Washington, but also Moscow has a ‘plan b.’

Russia and the US are more prone to cooperation and issues may rather arise with Ankara or El-Riyadh.

In case of violation of the ceasefire in Syria, the US side’s replacement plan is logical, but in this ‘Plan B’ tough actions by the United States are hardly expected to be taken.

The fact that ceasefire may last long is highly unbelievable.

It is hardly possible that everything will go according to the plan, the way Moscow and Washington wish.

The Kremlin and the White House realize the likelihood of such a development, that is why both sides have the ‘Plan B’.

The ceasefire applies to some of the parties and is not meant to stop using weapons in Syria. Under the preliminary agreement, the truce does not apply to "Islamic state" and "Jebat en-Nusra", it is known in Syria that the militants frequently swap their groups, so the maintenance of the ceasefire can be quite ‘fragile’ and may collapse at any moment, the only question is, who will be the first to violate the ceasefire agreement.

The US and its allies’ fears that the ceasefire may be violated is quite understandably as even Moscow can not be sure that Assad will maintain the ceasefire, which is not quite beneficial.

The ceasefire is beneficial to the US side as well, the parties have actually made compromises.

Russia defeated the United States in the establishment of the ceasefire, as the US needed it more because Assad was recently successfully attacked.

Russia signed the ceasefire agreement later, allowing Assad to seize more territories.

Now Russia can confidently bear the cost 'of a world superpower.’ However, this argument does not imply any formula that it can be beneficial to their allies of the US-Russian parties too.

Assad, after tasting victory will hardly stop.

Moreover, it is clear that the opposition side, taking advantage of the ceasefire, will strengthen and replenish its resources, including the military, which Assad does not definitely desire.

In case of the violation of the Syrian ceasefire, thetough measures expected to be taken rather Turkey and Saudi Arabia than the US.

Russia's National Research University senior lecturer at the Department of Political Science, Professor Leonid Isayeva's interview with RIA news.


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